第4章 信仰危機

然而,隨著事件的發展,新的法規和技術進步無限期地推延了危言聳聽者們預言的最後審判日。《增長的極限》出版之時,美國農民平均每英畝地收穫88蒲式耳玉米;40年之後,得益於轉基因技術、精準灌溉和電腦控制的耕地拖拉機,玉米的平均畝產量已經提高了三分之二,而這一點書中的模型並沒有預測出來。雖然地殼中鋁土礦量的總數不變,但是其越來越高的價格促使人們尋找能夠替代鋁的新材料,回收啤酒罐的生意也日漸興隆。汽車業、建築業和發電廠對於礦物燃料的利用更加高效,單位產出所需的原材料也大大降低。當年大行其道的聲稱創新和法規都無法改變即將降臨的災難的說法,已經被證明是完全錯誤的。

上述的一切都是未來發生的。而在1972年,迫在眉睫的問題是清理排向天空、河流和海洋的汙染物,以及處理數百萬噸被隨意堆放在世界各地的有害廢物。按照新的法規要求,大部分成本都將由製造商和發電廠承擔,他們需要清除廢氣中的有害氣體和微粒,還要在廢水排入最近的河流前對其進行處理。過去,廠商在很大程度上回避了這些支出,把環境破壞的後果丟給了社會。現在,政府通過環保許可證和非法排汙罰款,要求他們承擔起應盡的責任。

環保法規最終帶來了廣泛的收益,包括公眾健康和環境清潔等方面。但它也讓企業將投資中越來越多的部分用於安裝汙染控制裝置,而不是建設新的廠房和購買機械裝置。隨著世界經濟的黃金時代走向終結,這將成為增長所要揹負的另一項負擔。

donellah.meadowsetal.,citethelimitstogrowth/cite(newyork:universebooks,1972),23.

robertgillette,「thelimitstogrowth:hardsellforacomputerviewofdoomsday,」citescience/cite175(march10,1972):1,088;williamnordhaus,「worlddynamics:measurementwithoutdata,」citetheeconomicjournal/cite83(1973):1,157;jeanmatteoli,「lesressourcesmondialesetl’economiefrancaise,」conseileconomiqueetsociale197/13(1975):11;christopherfreeman,「malthuswithacomputer,」inh.s.d.coleetal.,eds.,citethinkingaboutthefuture:acritiqueof/citethelimitstogrowth(london:chatto&windus,1973),11.

frankuekoetter,citetheageofsmoke/cite(pittsburgh:universityofpittsburghpress,2009),118–119,132–136.

quotationisfromarepresentativeofenjaychemicalcompany,citedingeraldmarkowitzanddavidrosner,citedeceitanddenial/cite(berkeley,ca:universityofcaliforniapress,2002),144.

paulr.ehrlich,citethepopulationbomb/cite(newyork:ballantinebooks,1968),precursors,seepierredesrochersandchristinehoffbauer,「thepost-warintellectualrootsofthepopulationbomb,」citeelectronicjournalofsustainabledevelopment/cite1(2009):37–61.

1969—1973年特拉華州的共和黨州長彼得森講述了1971年該州共和黨控制的立法機構如何不顧所謂更進步的民主黨人的反對,批准了一項限制在該州海岸線兩英里範圍內發展工業的法律。seepeterson,citerebelwithaconscience/cite(newark,de:universityofdelawarepress,1999),147–149.

tapeofconversationamongpresidentnixon,lidoanthonyiacocca,henryfordii,andjohns.ehrlichmanintheovaloffice,april27,1971,nixonpresidentiallibrary&museum,nationalarchivesandrecordsadministration(nara);richardnixon,「remarksonsigningbillestablishingthecommissiononpopulationgrowthandtheamericanfuture,」march16,1970,onlinebygerhardpetersandjohny,citetheamericanpresidencyproject/cite,atwww.presidencydu/ws/?pid=2911;commissiononpopulationgrowthandtheamericanfuture,citefinalreport/cite(washington,1972),12,52;richardnixon,「statementaboutthereportofthecommissiononpopulationgrowthandtheamericanfuture,」may5,1972,citetheamericanpresidencyproject/cite,atwww.presidencydu/ws/?pid=3399.

edwardgoldsmithandrobertallen,ablueprintforsurvival,」citetheecologist/cite2(1972);unitednationsenvironmentalprogram,declarationoftheunitednationsconferenceonthehumanenvironment」(june1972);jeanbourgeois-pichat,「in200yearssomanythingscanhappen,」citepopulationindex/cite38(1972):re.hecox,「limitstogrowthrevisited:hastheworldmodelingdebatemadeanyprogress?」citebostoncollegeenvironmentalaffairslawreview/cite5(1976):65–96.

theunidentifiedisraeldiplomatisquotedinjohnbrooks,「areporteratlarge:startingover,」citethenewyorker/cite,october23,1971.「靜態國家」這一術語來自英國哲學家約翰·斯圖爾特·密爾。seejohnharteandroberth.socolow,「theequilibriumsociety,」injohnharteandroberth.socolow,eds.,citepatientearth/cite(newyork:holt,rinehartandwinston,1971),203.

hermane.daly,「towardastationary-stateeconomy,」inharteandsocolow,eds.,citepatientearth/cite,228–231.

1英畝≈4046.86平方米。

1蒲式耳(美製)≈35.238升。

onweight-to-outputtrends,seegreciamatosandloriewagner,「consumptionofmaterialsintheunitedstates,1990–1995,」usgeologicalsurvey,1999.

edwardf.denison,「effectsofselectedchangesintheinstitutionalandhumanenvironmentuponoutputperunitofinput,」citesurveyofcurrentbusiness/cite58(january1978):21–44;garyl.rutledge,「pollutionabatementandcontrolexpendituresinconstantandcurrentdollars,1972–1977,」citesurveyofcurrentbusiness/cite59(february1979):13–20.in1972,approximately6percentofcapitalspendingbyusbusinesseswenttoenvironmentalabatement;by1977,thefigurewas8percent.